Economic Commentaries

Stephan Ernharth, our lead strategist, shares his views in our Economic Commentary series.

The Farce Nears Its End

“I believe the artificial suppression of the Gold price (and of the entire correlated precious metals sector) approaches its end…”

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If the Shoe Fits, Wear It

“That's right, on October 28, 2015 - after 82 straight months of short-term interest rates at near zero - the cheap-credit addicted economy and financial system are so strong, so stable, and so vibrant that the Federal Reserve announced that it could not even raise short-term interest rates .25 of one percent…"

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“…[W]hen we get to Washington and Adams later on in this commentary - IMO you will understand exactly why they advised' 'Observe good faith and justice towards all nations; cultivate peace and harmony with all,' and 'Wherever the standard of freedom and independence has been or shall be unfurled, there will her [America's] heart, her benedictions and her prayers be. But she goes not abroad in search of monsters to destroy.'

But first, some extremely AS interesting observations…”

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A New Reality, and It's Called "Withdrawal"

"The Federal Reserve has since 2008 pushed a cocktail of newly created (and purchasing power debasing) $trillions combined with artificially low interest rates - that addicted stock, bond, housing, and automotive markets, along with the rest of the cheap credit dependent economy (not to mention massively indebted governments, and massively leveraged banks) have readily ingested.

This cocktail of newly created $trillions and artificially low interest rates has allowed the above-mentioned addicts to temporarily (I stress the word 'temporarily') avoid 'withdrawal' (aka dealing with/facing normalized borrowing costs, along with other serious, unpleasant economic and fiscal realities)…
The problem with addicts is that they develop a dependence and a tolerance, and thus they need more of their drug/s (not less). When doses are instead cut back (or stopped) the onset of withdrawal begins…”

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Facts Are Stubborn Things

"I believe now more than ever it's time to be as discerning as possible, to question things, and to not simply accept information fed by the mainstream financial media.

A time to seek facts, whether we like what we find out or not. And to use positively the information we discover.”

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